Election 2004
The 2004 post-election spin quickly latched onto "values" as an explanation of the results for both the presidential vote and for passage of all 11 anti-gay state constitutional amendments. In doing so, many sought to scapegoat the freedom to marry movement and with it the entire gay community. An analysis of the actual voting data, along with post-election surveys, proves that view wrong.
Use the key resources below to learn more about what ACTUALLY happened in the 2004 election and how the fight for equality was wrongly scapegoated for political losses.
FROM EVAN WOLFSON:
ANALYSIS: The wrong thing to do: Clinton's anti-gay advice
Newsweek's post-election (November 15th) issue alleges behind-the-scenes advice to Kerry from Clinton: Support anti-gay state amendments to ban marriage equality. Kerry said no. Kerry was right on the merits and strategy.
What do the 2004 election results mean for the movement toward marriage equality?
Evan Wolfson analyzes the 2004 election and its impact on the marriage equality movement saying, "In a second Bush term, whatever our opponents do, we can and will win, if we engage."
ADVISORY: Advice to Candidates
Evan Wolfson discusses how candidates should answer the question about where they stand on marriage equality turning back attacks by their opponents while preserving their "airtime" for the principal themes and issues in their campaign.
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WHERE YOU CAN GO TO LEARN MORE:
Human Rights Campaign and Elections
The Human Rights Campaign responded to the 2004 election.
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THE NUMBERS: POLLING & STATISTICS:
BACKGROUND: Marriage, exit polls and election 2004
Marriage played a role in the 2004 election, but not a decisive one. The numbers prove there is no national mandate for the religious right's ideology of homophobia.
- The National Election Pool's (NEP) Exit Poll revealed that a solid majority — 60% — of American voters favor legal recognition for same-sex couples.
- It is inaccurate to suggest a direct correlation between "moral values" and opposition to equal civil rights for gays and lesbians, particularly given the strong public support for marriage/civil unions among the electorate and the fact that roughly 45% of Bush voters support either marriage equality or civil unions.
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PUBLICATIONS:
The Democratic Party, "Moral Values" and Gay Rights: The Marriage of Politics and Principle
Geto refutes the myths of the 2004 election, explains the politics of marriage, and calls for making the case for the freedom to marry with authenticity.
The Money Behind the 2004 Anti-gay Marriage Amendments
The Institute reports who paid for the campaigns promoting the 2004 anti-gay marriage amendments, concluding a majority came from conservative Christian organizations and organized religion.
The Backlash Myth
On the one year anniversary of winning marriage in Massachusetts, the Human Rights Campaign discusses the great advances of the prior 12 months and debunks the backlash myth of the 2004 election.
Standing Up for Equality
The Human Rights Campaign reports on the electoral success of legislators who stood up for equality.
Midwest incumbents report: Impact of voting against anti-gay marriage amendments on 2004 re-election campaigns
The Task Force analyzes election results in the midwest in 2004 and the successes of legislators there who stood up for equality.
Voters and Values in the 2004 Elections
Gary Langer and Jon Cohen write, "A poorly devised exit poll question undermined meaningful analysis of voters’ concerns in the 2004 presidential election. Twenty-two percent of voters picked 'moral values' from a list of 'issues' describing what mattered most in their vote, more than selected any other item. Various commentators have misinterpreted this single data point to conclude that moral values are an ascendant political issue and to credit conservative Christian groups with turning George W. Bush’s popular vote defeat in 2000 into his three million–vote margin of victory in 2004. We suggest, rather, that while morals and values are critical in informing political judgments, they represent personal characteristics and ill-defined policy preferences far more than any discrete political issue."
Same-sex marriage, civil unions and the 2004 presidential election
"Despite claims to the contrary, same-sex marriage did not cost John Kerry the presidential election."
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ARTICLES:
Truth in Numbers
Further analysis definitively refutes right-wing efforts to spin Bush's narrow victory as a repudiation of gay people or our freedom to marry.
Okay, we lost Ohio. The question is why?
The GOP put on a strong mobilization effort, but that's not what tipped the Ohio election. They did not turn Gore voters into Bush voters by offering a ride to the polls. Instead, it was skillful exploitation of public concern over terrorism by the Bush team -- coupled with Democrats' inability to draw clear, powerful contrasts on the economy and health care -- that pushed Bush over the finish line.
OPINION: The Anatomy of Myth
How did one exit poll answer become the story of how Bush won? The myth of the 'moral values' election has morphed from instant doctrine to gospel truth—pundit prognostications like this must be stopped in their tracks.
Scrooge's nightmare
All the claims about mandates and values notwithstanding, the very fact that one-fifth of voters cited moral values means that four-fifths didn't. In fact, we heard much the same talk about the rise of conservative social values in the Reagan '80s, yet scholars who have studied attitudes in that period have found little evidence to suggest any reversal of the social liberalism that began in the '60s, particularly on issues involving family, women, morality, sexuality and overall tolerance. We must be careful not to confuse election results with cultural trends.
Liberal Christians challenge 'values vote'
Throughout the presidential campaign, opinion polls showed that frequent churchgoers were far more likely to support Bush than his Democratic rival, Sen. John F. Kerry. Exit polls on Election Day found that 22 percent of voters cited "moral values" as the key to their vote, and they tilted 4 to 1 toward Bush. The answer to this "God gap," Perriello said, "is that progressives need to embrace the deep moral critique that people are looking for and make that case on poverty and Iraq, and not just try to talk more about God or outpace the Republicans on gay marriage or abortion."
Moral Values Malarkey
While the nexus of issues boiled into the words "moral values" certainly were a big factor in this election, it’s being exaggerated partly because of the oddities of the poll itself and partly because the Big Theory conforms with what Republican strategists want you to believe.
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Newsweek's post-election (November 15th) issue alleges behind-the-scenes advice to Kerry from Clinton: Support anti-gay state amendments to ban marriage equality. Kerry said no. Kerry was right on the merits and strategy.
Evan Wolfson analyzes the 2004 election and its impact on the marriage equality movement saying, "In a second Bush term, whatever our opponents do, we can and will win, if we engage."
On the one year anniversary of winning marriage in Massachusetts, the Human Rights Campaign discusses the great advances of the prior 12 months and debunks the backlash myth of the 2004 election.
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Geto refutes the myths of the 2004 election, explains the politics of marriage, and calls for making the case for the freedom to marry with authenticity.
The Institute reports who paid for the campaigns promoting the 2004 anti-gay marriage amendments, concluding a majority came from conservative Christian organizations and organized religion.
