BACKGROUND: Marriage, exit polls and election 2004

Gay and Lesbian Alliance Against Discrimination

November 9, 2004

Marriage played a role in the 2004 election, but not a decisive one. The numbers prove theire is there is no national mandate for the religious right's ideology of homophobia.

From Bush Benefits From Efforts to Build a Coalition of the Faithful
The New York Times, November 5, 2004
By LAURIE GOODSTEIN and WILLIAM YARDLEY

"But Andrew Kohut, president of the Pew Research Center, warned against placing too much emphasis on 'values voters.'

"He noted that the percentages of voters who said they attended church once a week or opposed abortion were no greater than four years ago. In addition, a surprising 60 percent of voters said they favored some kind of legal recognition for same-sex couples, with 25 percent favoring marriage rights, and 35 percent favoring civil unions. Thirty-seven percent told pollsters that same-sex couples should not be granted any form of legal recognition.

"Mr. Kohut also questioned whether the anti-gay-marriage initiatives that were on the ballot in 11 states helped galvanize conservative religious voters to vote for the president. After all, he said, Mr. Kerry won both Michigan and Oregon, two swing states where gay marriage propositions were on the ballot.

"'After reading the newspapers this morning, we're getting a little carried away with the cultural and religious interpretation of this election,' Mr. Kohut said. 'It was a vote to some extent on values, but it was also a vote on John Kerry and how the American public felt about the way President Bush handled the war on terrorism.'"

Marriage played a role in the election, but not a decisive one. Of the three swing states where anti-gay amendments were on the ballot, Kerry won Michigan and Oregon. Bush did win Ohio, but by a narrower margin than he did in 2000 demonstrating that Kerry closed the gap on Bush, not the other way around.

The remaining eight states that voted on anti-gay amendments would likely have gone to Bush anyway: Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, Montana, North Dakota, Oklahoma, and Utah.

In Ohio, statewide voter turnout clearly was motivated by more than the anti-gay amendment. Nearly 1 million more Ohioans voted in 2004 than in 2000. Kerry won roughly 540,000 more votes than Gore did in 2000. Bush increased his tally by 500,000 or by 40,000 fewer votes than Kerry.

EXIT POLLS & 'MORAL VALUES'

• The National Election Pool's (NEP) Exit Poll revealed that a solid majority — 60% — of American voters favor legal recognition for same-sex couples. 25% support marriage and 35% support civil unions. Only 37% said that same-sex couples should have no legal recognition. And among Bush voters, roughly 45% said that they support either equal marriage rights or civil unions — which, combined with Bush's narrow margin of victory, clearly demonstrates there is no national mandate for the religious right's ideology of homophobia.
• The "moral values" element of the NEP's Exit Poll was not a volunteered answer, but part of a multiple-choice question for the respondents. Respondents had to pick their answer from a pre-determined list. The possible answers were: Taxes, Education, Iraq, Terrorism, Economy/Jobs, Moral Values and Health Care.
• While 22% of voters said that "moral values" was their most important issue, 20% said "economy/jobs" and 19% said "terrorism" — with only three points separating the top three responses.
• Because of the vague nature of the option, "moral values" may have acted as an umbrella category for opinion on one or more of the other options. As noted by Pew Research Center's Andrew Kohut on the November 3rd. PBS program "The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer": "If you put moral values on a list, it's hard for many people to say they weren't thinking of moral values when they were making their decision."
• "'Moral values' encompass a whole host of issues — and opinions on both sides of those issues: abortion; social, racial and economic justice; the war in Iraq; the death penalty; stem-cell research; lesbian/gay/bisexual/transgender equality; the integrity of public officials; the environment; and more. As Ron Reagan said during MSNBC's Election Night coverage: 'You talk about moral values. Well, moral values to some people are keeping gay people from getting married. Moral values to me is extending civil rights to everyone equally.'
• Those groups and individuals leading the charge against both equal marriage rights AND civil unions are not just anti-marriage rights — they're anti-gay. The national anti-gay groups fighting against marriage equality and civil unions also object to any and all legislation that extends equal protection of the law to gays and lesbians. There was nothing Kerry could have done to appease these groups. And as we saw in the Oklahoma (Tom Coburn) and Florida (Mel Martinez) Senate races — and in the North Carolina state Senate race (Woody White) — anti-gay candidates' exploitation of homophobia was not limited to the marriage issue.
• It is inaccurate to suggest a direct correlation between "moral values" and opposition to equal civil rights for gays and lesbians, particularly given the strong public support for marriage/civil unions among the electorate and the fact that roughly 45% of Bush voters support either marriage equality or civil unions.