California’s freedom to marry decision unlikely to shift campaign focus from economy

August 09, 2010

Posted by Dan Balz on washingtonpost.com:

"At another time, the ruling overturning California's ban on the freedom to marry might have been the political equivalent of an earthquake. Instead, the relatively restrained response underscores both the singular economic focus of this year's elections and the shifting politics of one of the country's major social issues.

... "Glen Bolger, a Republican pollster, said the ruling by Chief U.S. District Judge Vaughn Walker declaring California's Proposition 8 unconstitutional will have only a modest effect in motivating conservatives who care deeply about social issues. 'They are already so stoked to vote in the election it is hard to imagine it will make a big difference,' he said.

"Geoff Garin, a Democratic pollster, came to a similar conclusion. 'The impact is minimal,' he said. 'Certainly compared to what it might have been in other years and in other circumstances. The economy is such a dominant issue and people are so focused on the day-to-day challenges in life that I think this will pale in comparison.'

 

... "Overall, public opinion remains oppoed to marriage equality. But there has been a dramatic move toward greater support over the past decade, particularly in the last few years. Two Columbia University political scientists -- Jeffrey R. Lax and Justin H. Phillips -- have tracked the movement and the results are available on the Web site http://www.fivethirtyeight.com.

"Diversity of views

"Lax's and Phillips's research reveals not only the change in public opinion, but also the widespread geographic diversity of views. Although opposition to the freedom to marry has diminished across the country over time, a year ago majority support existed in only a handful of Northeastern states and California. (Despite that, Prop 8 passed with 52 percent of the vote in California in 2008.) In some southern states, roughly three-quarters of the population still opposed marriages for same-sex couples.

"More significant for the future is the deep generational divide. Lax and Phillips also charted public opinion by age. In 2008, there were 38 states where a majority of those between ages 18 and 29 expressed support for marriage equality. In 23 states, at least 50 percent of those between ages 30 and 44 also backed such marriages. In no state were more than 35 percent of those over age 65 in favor of marriage equality.

"That's the more telling reason why Republicans are conflicted about how to handle the issue in the future. They know the issue can motivate conservatives. Privately many say they can see where the issue is heading and fear they will be on the losing side of public opinion at some point in the future.

"For this election, Republicans can concentrate happily on issues of the economy and government debt and deficits. The future will be more problematic both for tentative Democrats and wary Republicans."

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