Gay rights activists cautiously optimistic about Prop. 8 challenge

June 24, 2010

Posted by Chris Good on theatlantic.com:

"There is palpable optimism among gay-rights groups that the latest Prop. 8 court challenge, brought by the legal odd couple of Ted Olson and David Boies, will mean an end to California's ban on the freedom to marry, and in the best of cases, to all state-level marriage equality bans across the country.

"But activists don't think it's a sure thing by any means, and they're not changing any of their plans because of it.

"'You never really know with these things, and certainly we don't have a crystal ball, but the facts are on our side, and the law is on our side, and we're hopeful that the courts would see [our] side,' said Micheal Cole, spokesman for the Human Rights Campaign, the long-standing DC-based juggernaut of gay-rights activism.

"45 states currently have marriage equality bans, and there is a possibility that the challenge to California's Prop. 8 in federal court, with final arguments having been presented in district court and Judge Vaughn Walker deliberating on his decision, will do away with all of them. It will depend on whether the case makes it to the Supreme Court, and whether a broad ruling is issued.

"The challenge rests in an invocation of the Constitution's equal-protection clause, which prevents laws from being applied discriminately. A ruling could validate or do away with Prop. 8 only, based on specifics in California, or it could validate or end all marriage equality bans if broad questions are asked by judges and justices, if broad arguments are made (Olson, for his part, is doing so), and if a broad opinion is issued.

 

... "'If this case is decided on the strength of the arguments, our side wins, hands-down, all the way up to the US Supreme Court. However, we know that on our issues, a win can be tenuous and the legal process can take years,' Marc Solomon, marriage director for Equality California, one of the state's most prominent membership groups for gay rights, wrote over e-mail. 'So we are working extremely hard right now to change hearts and minds in the direction of fairness and equality to gain solid majority support for the freedom to marry in preparation for a 2012 ballot campaign.'

"Solomon's group has been in heavy contact with volunteers and canvassers in the last year, gearing up for the big fight in 2011 and 2012 that will focus on door-knocking, making inroads with communities and constituency groups, and probably a significant ad campaign, coordinated with the gamut of California gay-rights groups and executed with the advice (and money) of larger national groups like the Human Rights Campaign. By the time that campaign needs to start, the trial probably won't be close to completion."