Prop 8 a Toss-Up
October 23, 2008
On the one hand, there have been suggestions that there is something of 'Bradley Effect' on polling on marriage bans, and that such measures tend to overperform their polls, although a more recent analysis refutes this suggestion. On the other hand, because ballot measures are confusing, it is usually better to be on the 'No' side of them ... people tend to vote 'no' on things that they don't understand. [Link]